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Gerard Baudson: The New World Order And Yugoslavia

The War Postponed?

"Si vis pacem para helium."
If you want peace, prepare for war.

Is the Dayton Accord "a peace postponed"?

For Serbs to demand that the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia becomes a real state and unifies immediately with Serbia is totally unrealistic. In Belgrade, as well as in Banja Luka and in Pale they know that "time should be given to the time", and that things will develop by themselves, outside of themselves, and in only a few years time.

In fact, Federation which is disuniting, more than it is uniting, Croats and Muslims is an artificial creation, and the development wished by Washington D.C. If the American will is to weaken, to hesitate, the Federation will dissolve. If the fighting should resume in Bosnia, it will find Croats and Muslims opposing each other, probably in the spring of 1997.

Macedonia, recognized by Belgrade in April 1996 strongly risks to find itself within the intrigues of Albania and Bulgaria and the internal tensions between the strong Albanian minority (30 to 40%) and the rest of the population which is not homogeneous, risk to end up in violent confrontations and a division of the country.

But the real uncertainty, the one that can provoke inter-ethnic and not the civil wars, is contained in the ambiguous American politics. The United States are becoming more and more present in the region of the Balkans, the real "soft belly" of Europe. Their interest is to maintain the climate of tension appropriate for justifying their growing military presence. They can, at any moment, provoke incidents and thus exercise an economic, political or strategic blackmail on the Europeans.

"The war in Yugoslavia started in Kosovo. It will end in Kosovo."

The tensions in this province, the historical cradle of the Serbian people, is not residing in any of the problems of a suppressed minority - the Albanians representing 90% of the entire population - or in the exercise of the human rights. The Albanians have all the rights, only they refuse to enjoy them. The unique program of Albanians is neither the autonomy nor a particular status, but a pure and simple secession, a prelude to a reunification with the neighboring Albania.

The great Serbian writer Dobrica Cosic wrote the following:

"Kosovo is not the last challenge to our people, but it is the last warning. If we wish to survive, evolve and take again an honorable place in the community of nations, we need a fierce analysis of our weaknesses, we have the need for the truth about ourselves, on which to base this creative self-awareness which we are lacking. And to instigate this spiritual and moral regeneration without which we can not resolve any of the questions which are tormenting us."1

One of the questions tormenting the Serbian people is the same that haunted the Jewish people and which will never leave it alone, from the captivity in Egypt up to Auschwitz: why has God send us so many temptations? The response is given in the bush of Horeb (Sinai) or "the burning bush", the bush inflamed under the form of which the Eternal appeared for the first time to Moses and announced to him his mission.

But this bush was a pine. Why? Because the pine bush is a painful tree and God is suffering when the plants suffer. And why did the flames go ablaze in the bush but the bush was not burning?

Because the pain is in Israel, but God does not wish it to consume Israel...

1. Dobrica Cosic, "The Break Down of Yugoslavia", page 63, Edition 1' Age d' Homme.

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